Country

Uzbekistan

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Uzbekistan.

Vulnerability

Uzbekistan is at risk of hydrometeorological hazards and natural disasters, which primarily affect the agricultural sector, through seasonal flooding and periods of drought. Threats from landslides, locust invasions, and avalanches have also been observed. Impacts from climate change make Uzbekistan increasingly vulnerable to: droughts, high temperatures, heat waves, heavy precipitation, mudflows, floods, and avalanches. Droughts may become more frequent due to river runoff decrease, specifically from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. Aridity and drought risks are high, especially during vegetation periods particularly for areas with increased demand and consumption from economic development and population growth.  Water scarcity, heat waves and increased frequency of high heat days (Max T>39°C) are the most severe risks from climate change in Uzbekistan. Landslides are also a major natural hazard risk, particularly for southern and eastern areas.

This section provides a summary of key natural hazards and their associated socioeconomic impacts in a given country. And it allows quick evaluation of most vulnerable areas through the spatial comparison of natural hazard data with development data, thereby identifying exposed livelihoods and natural systems.

Natural Hazard Statistics

The charts provide overview of the most frequent natural disaster in a given country and understand the impacts of those disasters on human populations.

Natural Hazard / Development Nexus

Understanding natural hazard occurrence as well as historical climate conditions, in relation to development contexts, is critical to understanding a country’s historical vulnerability. This tool allows the visualization of different natural hazards or historical climate conditions with socio-economic and development datasets. Select the Development Context and either a Natural Hazard or Climate Condition and overlay horizontally by sliding the toggle left or right to gain a broader sense of historically vulnerable areas.

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Data presented under Historical Climate Conditions are reanalysis products derived from ERA5-Land data. ERA5-Land is a global land-surface dataset at 9 km resolution, consistent with atmospheric data from the ERA5 reanalysis from 1950 onward. Climate reanalyses combine past observations with models to generate consistent time series of multiple climate variables. They provide a comprehensive description of the observed climate as it has evolved during recent decades, on 3D grids at sub-daily intervals. 

This data has been collected, aggregated and processed by the Climate Resilience Cluster of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD) initiative.

 
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Key Vulnerabilities

  • Uzbekistan’s summer months are expected to experience high temperatures, prolonged heat waves, and an expanded ‘summer season’. Heat waves, and increased frequency of the consecutive number of days above 39°C are expected to occur throughout the country. Climate warming is also expected to shift boundaries of spring frosts, with potential for adverse impacts on the agriculture sector.
  • Climate change, specifically changes in precipitation patterns are likely to alter slope and bedrock stability, resulting in localized landslides. This is expected to be a high-degree of hazard for southern and eastern parts of the country. 
  • Precipitation patterns and increased variability, land use, wind, glacial and snow melt, and other climatic conditions affect river systems. Changed precipitation patterns and river flows have led to riverine flooding and are also associated with heavy rainstorms, mudslides and landslides.
  • Water resources will be affected by changing temperatures, precipitation regimes, and humidity, which will have long-term implications on the amount and quality of water available.
  • Droughts may become more frequent in some areas due to river runoff decrease as well as from increased demand and consumption due to economic development and population growth. 
  • Higher temperatures will increase aridity and may adversely affect agricultural areas and growing seasons as well as pose additional and significant risks to population health, especially vulnerable groups.
  • Warm spell durations are expected to increase by 16 days, with a possibility of reaching a total of 38 days by mid-century under an RCP 8.5 scenario. 
  • Climate change threatens to exacerbate hydrometeorological risks such as recurring floods and drought. Prolonged drought in turn is projected to worsen potential for forest fires and shortened growing seasons.
  • Uzbekistan is working to improve its effectiveness and capacity of its disaster risk management (DRM). Government policy and actions, are guided by National Progress Report on the Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2009) and in alignment with the Sendai Framework.