The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Climate change is expected to produce increases in monthly maximum temperatures across Uzbekistan. The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of 2.4ºC by mid-century and nearly 5ºC by end of the century.
- The number of hot days in Uzbekistan is projected to increase by 28.6 days by 2040-2059 days, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20°C) is projected to increase by over 31 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Uzbekistan will experience a high variability of rainfall across different agroecological and climatic zones.
- Across the country, however, there have been some spatial differences in precipitation trends, with annual precipitation declining between 50-100mm in some central and eastern districts and moderately increasing in areas surrounding the Aral Sea.
- Increased heat and precipitation variability will lead to increased evapotranspiration in summer months resulting in a decrease in river flowing conditions.
- Future projections suggest that increased glacier melting (glaciers in Central Asia have shrunk by 25% and are expected to shrink by another 25% over the next 20 years) is expected to impact water availability and river flow in the short to long term in Uzbekistan.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.