The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of around 2.5ºC by mid-century and nearly 4.7ºC by end of the century.
- The number of hot days in Ukraine is projected to increase by 12.8 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20°C) is projected to increase by 25 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Ukraine will experience a high variability of rainfall across different agroecological and climatic zones.
- By mid-century, northern and north-eastern Ukraine will experience increased rainfall, while the south and south-eastern areas, particularly along the coast are projected to experience a 5-10% reduction in rainfall.
- Increased heat and precipitation variability will lead to increased evapotranspiration in summer months resulting in a decrease in river flowing conditions.
- It is projected that spring and summer months will become warmer and the country’s subtropical zone is likely to expand.