Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Uganda.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends summarized from the country's Second National Communication (2014) includes:


  • All models however show temperature rise in all the Climatologically Homogenous Zones of Uganda.
  • Projected maximum temperature ranges between 1-1.5°C, 1.7-2.2°C; 1.7-2.1°C, 3.2-3.9°C for RCP4.5 (moderate emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) for the 2050s and 2100s respectively.
  • Projected minimum temperature ranges between 0.8-1.8°C, 1.7-2.5°C; 1.4-2.1°C, 1.2-2.3°C for RCP4.5 (moderate emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) for the 2050s and 2100s respectively. 


  • The majority of models predict an increment in rainfall with varied magnitude of precipitation increase throughout Uganda.
  • The ensemble means show an increment for all the CHR zones and its mean rainfall amount is predicted to increase significantly and consistently for three which cover western shores of Lake Victoria and central western region; Mount Elgon region; and to the zone extending from Mount Rwenzori to the southern parts of Lake Kioga.
  • The greatest change in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is likely to take place between the current and the mid-century period.

This section allows the visualization of  climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models. 

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.