The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Climate change is expected to produce increases in monthly maximum temperatures, which are projected increase by 1.2°C to 3.9°C by mid-century under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of hot days in Romania will increase by 12.9 days by 2040-2059 and by 21-66 days by the end of the century under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20°C) are expected to begin earlier and end later, increasing by 4 - 26 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Precipitation is expected to decrease by 51mm per month by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Rainfall variability is expected to increase as well as intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall.
- Increased heat and precipitation variability will lead to increased evapo-transpiration in summer months resulting in a 10-20% decrease in river flowing conditions.
- Southern and eastern regions are expected to be hardest hit by increased temperature, prolonged heat waves and an approximately 1% reduction in rainfall. This is expected to cause drastic changes in ecosystem and socio-economic conditions for the regions.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.