The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
- There is good agreement among models that Mongolia should expect temperature rises at rates well above the global average.
- Under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5) Mongolia is projected to experience a rise of around 5.3°C by 2080-2099, compared to a global average of around 3.7°C.
- A significantly lower rise of only 1.4°C is projected under the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6) over the same time horizon.
- There is reasonable agreement among climate models that Mongolia can expect a slight increase in annual precipitation under most emissions scenarios.
- By 2080-2099 this increase is projected by the CMIP5 model ensemble to be in the range of 8-14%.
- Alongside these annual trends Mongolia is expected to experience an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events.
- The CMIP5 model ensemble projects increases in the total maximum rainfall falling in one and five day periods over Mongolia.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.