Country

Mongolia

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Mongolia.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents Mongolia’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Temperature

  • There is good agreement among models that Mongolia should expect temperature rises at rates well above the global average.
  • Under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5) Mongolia is projected to experience a rise of around 5.3°C by 2080-2099, compared to a global average of around 3.7°C.
  • A significantly lower rise of only 1.4°C is projected under the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6) over the same time horizon.

Precipitation

  • There is reasonable agreement among climate models that Mongolia can expect a slight increase in annual precipitation under most emissions scenarios.
  • By 2080-2099 this increase is projected by the CMIP5 model ensemble to be in the range of 8-14%. 
  • Alongside these annual trends Mongolia is expected to experience an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events. 
  • The CMIP5 model ensemble projects increases in the total maximum rainfall falling in one and five day periods over Mongolia.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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