Country

Mexico

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Mexico.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3°C by the 2060's and by 1.3 to 4.8°C by the 2090's.
  • The projected rate of warming is similar in all seasons, but more rapid in the north and central regions of the country.
  • Annually, projections indicate that 18%-34% of days will be “hot” by the 2060's, and on 22%-54% of days by the 2090's. 
  • All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered “cold” in the current climate. 

Precipitation

  • Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating decreases in rainfall for Mexico. Projections vary between -60% and +8% by the 2090's, with ensemble median values of -3% to -15%.
  • Relative changes in projected rainfall show the strongest decreasing signal in dry season (December-February and March-May) rainfall.
  • Maximum 1- and 5-day rainfalls tend towards negative changes in the dry seasons, and positive changes in September-November. 

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.

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