Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Mali.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.


  • Mean annual temperatures across Mali are projected to increase by 1.2 to 3.6°C by the 2060's, and by 1.8 to 5.9°C by the 2090's, and this rate of warming is projected to be similar across all seasons.
  • The number of hot days and hot nights are projected to increase across Mali by 18-38 percent and 23-40 percent by 2060, and this rate of increase is projected to be more rapid in the south.


  • More frequent El Niño events could also increase the frequency and intensity of droughts across Mali, with important implications for disaster management and response.
  • Although significant changes in the duration of the dry spells are projected, particularly between November and March, there is still uncertainty as to the direction of change, with some models indicating increases in the duration of the dry spells while others suggest decreases.
  • As yet, it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change for Mali under a future climate. This is due to large model uncertainties, with multi-model analyses of the Sahel suggesting a drying trend, and some individual models suggesting a more humid future.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.