Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Mali's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Mean annual temperatures across Mali are projected to increase by 1.2 to 3.6°C by the 2060's, and by 1.8 to 5.9°C by the 2090's, and this rate of warming is projected to be similar across all seasons.
  • The number of hot days and hot nights are projected to increase across Mali by 18-38 percent and 23-40 percent by 2060, and this rate of increase is projected to be more rapid in the south.

Precipitation

  • More frequent El Niño events could also increase the frequency and intensity of droughts across Mali, with important implications for disaster management and response.
  • Although significant changes in the duration of the dry spells are projected, particularly between November and March, there is still uncertainty as to the direction of change, with some models indicating increases in the duration of the dry spells while others suggest decreases.
  • As yet, it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change for Mali under a future climate. This is due to large model uncertainties, with multi-model analyses of the Sahel suggesting a drying trend, and some individual models suggesting a more humid future.