The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Annual temperatures are expected to increase by 2.5°C 2040-2059 (RCP8.5) and may increase by as much as 7.1°C by the end of the century.
- Southern and eastern regions are expected to be hardest hit by high temperatures and prolonged heat waves.
- Urban areas are expected to be at risk of increased heat due to heat island effects in urban areas and limited infrastructure capable of handling demand for active cooling.
- Annual precipitation will decrease by -16.2mm in 2040-2059.
- Rainfall is expected to be more intense, increasing the likelihood of severe landslides, floods, avalanches, and mudflows.
- Variable precipitation coupled with increased heat is also projected to raise the probability of severe droughts for the sub region and particularly, for eastern and central areas of Georgia.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.