The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.2°C (RCP 2.6) and 2.2°C (RCP 8.5) in 2040-2059.
- By 2080-2099, annual temperature median is projected to increase by 1.0°C (RCP 2.6) and 5.1°C (RCP 8.5).
- The rising temperatures compared to baseline period are more noticeable during summer, from September to December.
- The spatial distribution of temperature increase is relatively homogeneous across the country, with slightly higher warming trend projected in southern and western parts of the country.
- Annual precipitation median is projected to decrease by roughly 1.2% (RCP 2.6) and 4.4% (RCP 8.5) in 2040-2059.
- By 2080-2099, annual precipitation median is expected to increase by 2.8% (RCP 2.6) and decrease by 10.7%.
- The rainfall drops compared to baseline period (1986-2005) are more dominant during wet season, especially from October to March.
- Northern and eastern parts of the country is projected to experience above normal precipitation. Whilst western and southern parts of the country tend to receive less than normal precipitation.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.