Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents St. Vincent and the Grenadines's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data


  • Temperatures are expected to increase between 0.6 and 2.3°C by the 2060's, and between 1.1 to 3.9°C by the 2090's. The projected rate of warming is similar throughout the year, but more rapid in the south than the north.
  • The number of hot days and nights are projected to increase significantly throughout the country: hot days by 31%-66% in 2060 and 39%-95% by the 2090's; and hot nights by 31%-75% by the 2060's and 55%-100% by the 2090's.
  • The number of cold days and nights is projected to decrease significantly. These events do not occur at all in the 2060's projections.


  • The mean annual rainfall projection indicates the decreases in rainfall for Grenada. Annual projection varies between -61% to +23% by the 2090's. The largest decrease is projected to occur during the wet months, i.e., June through November, with higher decreases in the south than the north. However, the proportion of total rainfall that falls during heavy events is projected to decrease by -22% to 5% by the 2090's.