Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Rwanda's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data


  • Average maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.44°-0.6° C in 2020, 1.3°-1.9° C in 2050, and 2.5-3.3° C in 2100.
  • The number of ‘warm days’ is projected to increase markedly by the middle and end of the century for all emissions scenarios.
  • ‘Warm nights’ are projected to increase substantially by middle and late 21st century under each emissions scenario. Over 80% of nights are projected to be ‘hot’ by 2100.


  • Rainfall is highly variable in Rwanda but average annual rainfall may increase by up to 20% by the 2050s from 1970 (Rwanda Green Growth Strategy, 2011).
  • Projections for East Africa over Rwanda and Burundi show an increasing trend in rainfall intensity for both rainy seasons which is likely to cause floods and storms which can result in landslides, crop losses, health risks and damage to infrastructure (Rwanda Green Growth Strategy, 2011).