Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Rwanda.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:


  • Average maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.44°-0.6° C in 2020, 1.3°-1.9° C in 2050, and 2.5-3.3° C in 2100.
  • The number of ‘warm days’ is projected to increase markedly by the middle and end of the century for all emissions scenarios.
  • ‘Warm nights’ are projected to increase substantially by middle and late 21st century under each emissions scenario. Over 80% of nights are projected to be ‘hot’ by 2100.


  • Rainfall is highly variable in Rwanda but average annual rainfall may increase by up to 20% by the 2050s from 1970 (Rwanda Green Growth Strategy, 2011).
  • Projections for East Africa over Rwanda and Burundi show an increasing trend in rainfall intensity for both rainy seasons which is likely to cause floods and storms which can result in landslides, crop losses, health risks and damage to infrastructure (Rwanda Green Growth Strategy, 2011).

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.