Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents North Macedonia's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • It is forecast that there will be a continuous increase in temperature during the period 2025-2100.
  • Synthesized results from several models predict average increases in air temperatures in Republic of North Macedonia to be 1.0°C (0.9-1.1) by 2025, 1.9°C (1.6-2.2) by 2050, 2.9°C (2.2-3.6) by 2075, and 3.8°C (2.7-5.4) by 2100, in comparison with the reference period.
  • Compared with the period 1961-1990, the predicted changes for the period 2025-2100 will be most intense and temperature rises will be greatest in summer.
  • During winter, the air temperatures are also expected to increase, though with less intensity. It is possible that the average monthly temperatures at the turn of winter into spring will be levelled between 2025-2100.

Precipitation

  • A decrease in annual precipitation is predicted in the period 2025-2100.
  • Precipitation reductions are forecast for all four seasons, with the maximum decrease in summer (June, July and August).
  • The average sum of precipitation is expected to decrease -5% by 2050 and -13% by 2100, in comparison with the reference period.
  • The intensity of changes is forecast to be greatest in July and August (when there may be no precipitation at all) and will be most severe in the eastern regions. Less intense decreases in precipitation are expected in the cold part of the year.

Temparature

Precipitation