The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of around 1.5°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2090.
- Higher emission pathways (RCP 6.0 and 8.5) predict an increase in the mean annual number of hot days, however this increase is only statistically significant by the end of the century.
- Great uncertainty remains around future changes in mean monthly precipitation, none of the model ensemble predictions are statistically significant and the estimated ranges are large.
- Uncertainty around future precipitation trends includes extreme weather events, it is not clear whether intense rainfall events and drought events will change in frequency.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.