The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The northern areas are projected to see annual temperatures increase between 0.4-4.7°C while the southern regions will experience temperature increases between 0.2-3.8° C by 2100.
- The number of ‘frost’ days is projected to decrease by mid century (2046-2065) and late century (2081-2100) under all emissions scenarios. The largest projected change in the number ‘frost’ days is over northeastern Lesotho in the Mountain livelihood zone.
- The number of ‘warm’ days and nights is projected to increase by mid and late 21st century under low, medium, and high emissions scenarios. Northwestern Lesotho is projected to see the largest increase.
- Projections suggest a late onset of summer rains and a change in rainfall patterns that will become more erratic.
- Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly by middle (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100), under all emissions scenarios. Southern Lesotho is projected to see average to below average precipitation in summer.
- Projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of floods and droughts.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.