The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the most extreme climate scenario (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase of approximately 1.6°C by 2050 and approximately 3.0°C by 2090.
- Kiribati’s monthly temperature is expected to remain within a small range throughout the year as at present.
- The model ensemble’s forecast suggests some increase in average monthly precipitation for Kiribati in 2050 and 2090 in the most extreme scenario (RCP8.5). However, none of these increases are significantly different from zero (no change in precipitation), suggesting uncertainty over whether any change in average precipitation levels will occur.
- The model ensemble does not forecast any change in the likelihood of drought in Kiribati in any of the scenarios considered.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.