The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Warming will increase by 0.2-0.3°C per decade in Indonesia.
- Increasing annual precipitation across the majority of the Indonesian islands, except in southern Indonesia where is it projected to decline by up to 15%.
- Changes in the seasonality of precipitation are projected: parts of Sumatra and Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by the 2080's during December-February.
- A 30-day delay in the annual monsoon is projected, bringing a 10% increase in rainfall later in the crop year, April-June, and up to a 75% decrease in rainfall later in the dry season, July-September.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.