Country

India

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting India.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Temperatures in India are projected to increase by approximately 4°C by 2080-2099 under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, and around 1.1°C under the RCP2.6 emissions pathway. 
  • Warming is stronger in annual minimum and maximum temperatures than in the average.
  • Under all emissions pathways, the rise in annual minimum temperatures is around 18-21% higher than the rise in average temperatures.
  • Warming on higher emissions pathways is strongly biased towards the winter and pre-monsoon months.

Precipitation

  • Considerable uncertainty characterizes projections of local long-term future precipitation trends in India, this uncertainty is compounded by a poor understanding of the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation and the monsoon, and the impact climate change may have on this relationship.
  • Future changes in the seasonality of monthly precipitation at the national level are also highly uncertain under all emissions scenarios.
  • There is greatest agreement on increases in the intensity of extreme precipitation events in south India and in the vicinity of the Himalayas in the north.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.

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