Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents India's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Temperatures in India are projected to increase by approximately 4°C by 2080-2099 under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, and around 1.1°C under the RCP2.6 emissions pathway. 
  • Warming is stronger in annual minimum and maximum temperatures than in the average.
  • Under all emissions pathways, the rise in annual minimum temperatures is around 18-21% higher than the rise in average temperatures.
  • Warming on higher emissions pathways is strongly biased towards the winter and pre-monsoon months.

Precipitation

  • Considerable uncertainty characterizes projections of local long-term future precipitation trends in India, this uncertainty is compounded by a poor understanding of the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation and the monsoon, and the impact climate change may have on this relationship.
  • Future changes in the seasonality of monthly precipitation at the national level are also highly uncertain under all emissions scenarios.
  • There is greatest agreement on increases in the intensity of extreme precipitation events in south India and in the vicinity of the Himalayas in the north.

Temparature

Precipitation