Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Grenada's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data


  • There are no specific climate change scenarios available for Grenada and pending more accurate regional data on variation in climate, and a consensus on a regional climate change scenario, the scenarios adopted for temperature changes and sea level rise are based on the IPCC (1995) accepted and recommended scenarios i.e. temperature rise of 1.0°C to 3.5°C and sea level rise of 15 cm to 95 cm by 2100.


  • A positive or negative variation of 5% to 20% in total precipitation by the year 2100 may be considered.
  • It is reported that annual precipitation would increase by approximately 6% in the Western Caribbean and decrease by 4% in the Eastern Caribbean.
  • Wetter wet seasons and severer and longer droughts during the dry seasons are predicted. An increase in the frequency of extreme events may also be experienced.
  • It is predicted that by the year 2100, there will be a 5 to 10 percent increase in the wind speeds of tropical storms worldwide for a Sea Surface Temperature increase of 2.2 °C.