The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Mean annual temperature is expected to increase by 2°C to 3°C in the period 2030-2049 as compared to 1980-1999. This represents substantially higher temperature increases than the global average.
- Temperatures in December-February are likely to increase by 1°C in 2030-2049.
- For the June-August period, temperatures are projected to increase by 1°C in 2030-2049.
- Mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 3% in the period 2030-2049 as compared to 1980-1999.
- December-February and March-May precipitation levels are likely to increase by 3% and 5%.
- For the June-August period, precipitation levels are likely to decrease by 3%.
- Increases are projected for the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events on the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador in the period of 2071-2100.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.