The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures across Djibouti are projected to increase between 0.6°C and 2.4°C by 2050.
- Future precipitation changes for Djibouti remain unclear. This is due to large model uncertainties, with multimodel analyses of the Sahel suggesting a drying trend, and some individual models suggesting a more humid future. What is clear, however, is that climate variability and extreme events will increase in the future.
- Critical rainfall periods, which feed the central lowland grazing zones during the months of April-August are predicted to decrease.
- The Hays‐Dadaac, or winter rains, which occur during the months of September-February are on average predicted to decrease, with marked changes expected during the range growing period of September-October.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.