Country

Croatia

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Croatia.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents Croatia’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Croatia is expected to become hotter and drier, especially in the summer. Trends show warming throughout Croatia, with higher temperatures in the mainland than the coast and the Dalmatian islands.
  • Temperatures are expected to increase by 2.3°C above the historical mean by mid-century, under RCP 8.5 scenario.
  • The number of hot days in Croatia will increase by 8.1 days by 2040-2059 days, under RCP 8.5 scenario.

Precipitation

  • Precipitation trends for the country are projected to decline steadily over the century, however these negative trends are primarily recognized in the summer months in the mountain regions as well as the Adriatic and its hinterland.  Annual decreases in precipitation are also expected in Istria and Gorski Kotar, expected due to reduced spring rainfall.
  • Precipitation is expected to decrease by 1.6 mm per month by 2040-2059, under RCP 8.5 scenario.
  • An increase in the number of consecutive dry days is expected to be seen over the spring season for the norther Adriatic and its hinterlands, with summer seasons seeing an extended number of dry days in the southern coast of Croatia.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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