The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Croatia is expected to become hotter and drier, especially in the summer. Trends show warming throughout Croatia, with higher temperatures in the mainland than the coast and the Dalmatian islands.
- Temperatures are expected to increase by 2.3°C above the historical mean by mid-century, under RCP 8.5 scenario.
- The number of hot days in Croatia will increase by 8.1 days by 2040-2059 days, under RCP 8.5 scenario.
- Precipitation trends for the country are projected to decline steadily over the century, however these negative trends are primarily recognized in the summer months in the mountain regions as well as the Adriatic and its hinterland. Annual decreases in precipitation are also expected in Istria and Gorski Kotar, expected due to reduced spring rainfall.
- Precipitation is expected to decrease by 1.6 mm per month by 2040-2059, under RCP 8.5 scenario.
- An increase in the number of consecutive dry days is expected to be seen over the spring season for the norther Adriatic and its hinterlands, with summer seasons seeing an extended number of dry days in the southern coast of Croatia.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.