This page presents Colombia's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.
Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.
This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page. Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below.
- The global climate models (GCM) project that there may be a warming by mid-century with possibly more frequent heat waves and a more scarce occurrence of days with frost.
- Temperatures across Colombia are projected to increase between 1°C and 2.5°C by 2100. This increase is projected to be more significant in the higher elevations.
- The maximum amount of rain that falls in any 5-day period ─ an indicator of extreme weather – is projected to increase and the maximum period between rainy days is expected to decrease.
- Recent data suggest that some areas will become wetter while others will become drier.
- The duration of the rainy season in the San Andrés islands could increase by as much as 15% by 2050 and 20% by 2080.