The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The global climate models (GCM) project that there may be a warming by mid-century with possibly more frequent heat waves and a more scarce occurrence of days with frost.
- Temperatures across Colombia are projected to increase between 1°C and 2.5°C by 2100. This increase is projected to be more significant in the higher elevations.
- The maximum amount of rain that falls in any 5-day period ─ an indicator of extreme weather – is projected to increase and the maximum period between rainy days is expected to decrease.
- Recent data suggest that some areas will become wetter while others will become drier.
- The duration of the rainy season in the San Andrés islands could increase by as much as 15% by 2050 and 20% by 2080.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.