The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Monthly temperatures are expected to increase by 2.2°C in 2040-2059, 3.2°C in 2060-2079, and 4.4°C by 2080-2099.
- Monthly temperature anomaly is projected to be higher in the areas of the country associated with a continental climate.
- The number of projected summer days in Bulgaria is expected to increase by 34 days by mid-century and 60 days by the end of the century; these impacts will be higher around May and September.
- Under RCP8.5 monthly precipitation is expected to decrease steadily compared to the baseline period by 4.4 mm by 2040-2059 and -10.2 mm by 2080-2099.
- The southern areas of the country are projected to experience less days with rainfall above 20 mm while the North is expected to experience slight increases.
- In a business as usual scenario, Bulgaria is projected to experience a 0.36 higher probability of severe drought by mid-century and 0.84 probability by end of century.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.