The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
- Belarus’ warming trend is forecast to continue, with increases in average annual temperature likely to be between 0.6-1.9°C between 2010 to 2039 and between 1.0-2.9°C by 2050.
- Between 2071 to 2100, regional forecasts (for East Europe and Russia, including Belarus) predict that wintertime average daily temperatures will increase by between 3-7°C compared to the 1961-1990 period.
- Belarus is predicted to face shorter but harsher winters, where temperatures are higher but in the colder periods extremely low temperatures will be possible (projected temperature increases in winter are 2-3°C by 2050).
- It is predicted that there will be a continuation in reduction in the number of frost days and in the duration of snow cover and an increase in the frequency and duration of heat-waves.
- Model projections for changes in precipitation in Belarus are unclear.
- However, there is greater certainty in predictions of run-off reductions due to increasing evapotranspiration and in the intensity of precipitation, with more extreme rainfall events.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.