Country

Azerbaijan

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Azerbaijan.

Climate Data Projections

Temperature

  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase of approximately 2.4°C by 2050 and approximately 4.5°C by 2090. These temperature increases are projected to be most severe during the summer months, with scenario RCP8.5 projecting a rise in average temperature by 2050 of approximately 3°C from June to September, compared with a rise of 2°C or less from November to April.
  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the lowest emission pathway (RCP2.6) is an average temperature increase of approximately 1°C by 2050 and 1°C by 2090.
  • Under all scenarios the number of summer days is expected to increase and the number of frost and ice days are expected to fall significantly by the end of the century.
  • Under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5), the annual probability of heat waves is projected to increase significantly by the latter half of the 21st century.

Precipitation

  • The model ensemble forecasts that average monthly precipitation for Azerbaijan will stay the same as during the reference period of 1986-2005. This finding is equally true for the lower (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and the higher (RCP6.0 and CP8.5) emission pathways, and at both the 2050 and 2090 time horizons.
  • There is little seasonal variation in the expected change in average monthly precipitation, although according to most models the level of precipitation is marginally more likely to fall in summer months and to rise in winter months, relative to the reference period.
  • Under the higher emission pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP6.0), the annual probability of severe drought in Azerbaijan is projected to rise significantly.
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