Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Azerbaijan's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5) is an average temperature increase of approximately 2.4°C by 2050 and approximately 4.5°C by 2090. These temperature increases are projected to be most severe during the summer months, with scenario RCP8.5 projecting a rise in average temperature by 2050 of approximately 3°C from June to September, compared with a rise of 2°C or less from November to April.
  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the lowest emission pathway (RCP2.6) is an average temperature increase of approximately 1°C by 2050 and 1°C by 2090.
  • Under all scenarios the number of summer days is expected to increase and the number of frost and ice days are expected to fall significantly by the end of the century.
  • Under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5), the annual probability of heat waves is projected to increase significantly by the latter half of the 21st century.

Precipitation

  • The model ensemble forecasts that average monthly precipitation for Azerbaijan will stay the same as during the reference period of 1986-2005. This finding is equally true for the lower (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and the higher (RCP6.0 and CP8.5) emission pathways, and at both the 2050 and 2090 time horizons.
  • There is little seasonal variation in the expected change in average monthly precipitation, although according to most models the level of precipitation is marginally more likely to fall in summer months and to rise in winter months, relative to the reference period.
  • Under the higher emission pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP6.0), the annual probability of severe drought in Azerbaijan is projected to rise significantly.