Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Angola's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Mean annual temperature is projected to increase between 1.2 and 3.2°C by 2060, and 1.7 and 5.1°C by 2090, and warming is projected to occur more rapidly in the interior and eastern parts of Angola.

  • Mean land surface temperatures are likely to surpass the increase in global mean land surface temperature in all seasons over southern Africa, and the projected warming of between 3.4-4.2°C over this region exceeds natural climate variability.

Precipitation

  • Projected changes in mean annual rainfall over Angola project a wide range in changes, with changes in precipitation ranging from -27 to +20% by the 2090's. Median values range from -1 to -6% by the 2090's.  Rainfall is projected to decrease predominantly in September-November (-43 to +26%) and in June-August (-65 to +42%).

  • Mean annual precipitation projections from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate little or no change in precipitation under the RCP2.6 emissions scenario for middle and late 21st century over Angola. Projections for RCP8.5 indicate little or no change by mid-21st century, while for late 21st century projections indicate divergent changes over the country.

  • Projections point toward drier winters over large regions of southern Africa by the end of the 21st century, and decreases in rainfall are projected for southern hemisphere spring months.