The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends includes:
- Increase in mean annual temperature – the average annual temperature across the country will increase between 0.8 – 1.0°C by 2025 and 2.9 – 5.3°C by 2100.
- Increase in mean seasonal temperatures – for all time horizons and all seasons, temperatures are expected to increase. Temperatures will increase in a range from 1.4 – 1.8°C for spring to 1.7 – 2.2°C for autumn by 2050. Forecast for summer and winter are also within these ranges.
- Decrease of 4-5 frost days (temperatures < 5°C) per year in high altitudes by 2025.
- Increase of 1-2 hot days (temperature > 35°C) per year by 2025.
- Changes in the precipitation regime: average annual precipitation across the country is expected to decrease by -2.6 to -3.4% by 2025 and by -5.9 to -6.3% by 2050.
- The decline in precipitation is likely to be greatest in summer, with winter showing the least decline. Summer precipitation will decline by -8.7 to -11.5% by 2025 and by -17.8 to -23.2% by 2050, whilst winter precipitation will be relatively stable with precipitation declining by 0 to -1.8% by 2025 and by -2.8 to -3.6% by 2050.
- More precipitation in the form of rain rather than snow with consequently increase in runoff and soil moisture.
This section allows the visualization of climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.