The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Vietnam is projected to experience an average temperature increase of 3.36°C by 2080–2100 under the highest emission pathway (RCP8.5).
- Across all emissions scenarios and future time periods, changes in annual maximum temperatures are greater than changes in average temperature.
- Temperature increases will be strongest in southern Vietnam, but uncertainty is high in subnational comparisons.
- None of the end-of-century changes across the four emissions pathways are statistically significant.
- Some variation in extreme rainfall amounts is reported, with some increases in extreme rainfall projected in southern and central Vietnam, and slight reductions projected elsewhere.
- The intensity of sub-daily extreme rainfall events appears to be increasing with temperature, a finding supported by evidence from different regions of Asia.
This section allows the visualization of climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.