Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Tuvalu.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:


  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of around 1.3°C by 2050 and 2.7°C by 2090.
  • The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the lowest emission pathway (RCP 2.6) is an average temperature increase of around 0.7°C by 2050 and 0.7°C by 2090.
  • The frequency and intensity of days with extreme heat is expected to increase.


  • Tuvalu’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2015) suggests that annual and seasonal mean precipitation is expected to increase in the future.
  • The intensity and frequency of days with extreme rainfall is expected to increase.
  • Evidence from the CMIP5 model ensemble is less conclusive, no statistically significant changes in precipitation have been modelled. This uncertainty includes both annual mean precipitation and intensity of rainfall during extreme events. 

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.