This page presents Tonga's projected climate. The Mean Projections page offers CCKP's complete suite of indicators for in-depth analysis into future climate scenarios and potential risks due to changing climates. Data can be investigated as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heat plot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatology and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.
Indicators can be investigated either as a multi-model ensemble or by individual model. Multi-model ensembles represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP, while individual models can help to better understand variability across projected climates. Individual models can have substantial bias and care should be taken in conducting analysis. The number of available models may vary for different climate indicators as some modeling groups did not, for example, report humidity, pressure, or wind fields on a daily basis and thus not all indicators could be computed with all models. It is strongly recommended that analysis relies upon multi-model ensembles, unless there is a strong understanding of the underlying assumptions and biases of an individual model.
Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution. CCKP continues to add new, additional indicators as they are produced and as appropriate.