Country

Suriname

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Suriname.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents Suriname’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:

Temperature

  • Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8-3.1°C by the 2060's, and 1.3-4.7°C by the 2090's.
  • Projected rate of warming is similar in all seasons, but more rapid in the southern, interior regions of the country than in the northern, coastal regions.
  • All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in the current climate. Annually, ‘hot’ days and nights will occur on 20-59% of days and 38-93% of nights respectively by the 2060's, and on 20-81% of days and 56-99% of nights respectively by the 2090's. Seasonally, days that are considered hot for each season are projected to occur on 20-98% if days by the 2090's, with the fastest rates occurring in August-October and February-April. Nights that are considered hot for each season will occur on 59-99% of nights in every season by the 2090's with the fastest rates of increase in August-October and November-January.
  • Projected increases in ‘hot’ days and nights are more rapid over coastal and ocean regions than in the interior.
  • All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights. Cold days are expected to become exceedingly rare, occurring on maximum 5% of days in the year, and potentially not at all, by the 2090's. ‘Cold’ nights do not occur at all by the 2090's in any season.

Precipitation

  • Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models show a wide range of changes in precipitation for Suriname. Projections vary between -65% to +40% by the 2090's. GCM projections span both overall increases and decreases with wide variations, but tend towards decreases in more models.
  • Regional Climate Model rainfall projections indicate large decreases in rainfall in all seasons. The maximum decreases is projected for the September-November season. 
  • The proportion of total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’ events increases slightly in most GCM model predictions, changing from -6% to +11% by the 2080's.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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