The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8-3.1°C by the 2060's, and 1.3-4.7°C by the 2090's.
- Projected rate of warming is similar in all seasons, but more rapid in the southern, interior regions of the country than in the northern, coastal regions.
- All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in the current climate. Annually, ‘hot’ days and nights will occur on 20-59% of days and 38-93% of nights respectively by the 2060's, and on 20-81% of days and 56-99% of nights respectively by the 2090's. Seasonally, days that are considered hot for each season are projected to occur on 20-98% if days by the 2090's, with the fastest rates occurring in August-October and February-April. Nights that are considered hot for each season will occur on 59-99% of nights in every season by the 2090's with the fastest rates of increase in August-October and November-January.
- Projected increases in ‘hot’ days and nights are more rapid over coastal and ocean regions than in the interior.
- All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights. Cold days are expected to become exceedingly rare, occurring on maximum 5% of days in the year, and potentially not at all, by the 2090's. ‘Cold’ nights do not occur at all by the 2090's in any season.
- Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models show a wide range of changes in precipitation for Suriname. Projections vary between -65% to +40% by the 2090's. GCM projections span both overall increases and decreases with wide variations, but tend towards decreases in more models.
- Regional Climate Model rainfall projections indicate large decreases in rainfall in all seasons. The maximum decreases is projected for the September-November season.
- The proportion of total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’ events increases slightly in most GCM model predictions, changing from -6% to +11% by the 2080's.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.