Vulnerability

Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).

Sudan is exposed to several geophysical and climate-related hazards, some of which are increasing in frequency and magnitude. Several vulnerability indices rank Sudan among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate variability and change. 

This section provides a summary of key natural hazards and their associated socioeconomic impacts in a given country. It allows for a quick assessment of most vulnerable areas through the spatial comparison of natural hazard data with development data, thereby identifying exposed livelihoods and natural systems.

Natural Hazard Statistics

The charts provide overview of the most frequent natural disaster in a given country and understand the impacts of those disasters on human populations.

Metadata

Climate change is now recognized to have a significant impact on disaster management efforts and pose a significant threat to the efforts to meet the growing needs of the most vulnerable populations. The demands of disaster risk management are such that concise, clear, and reliable information is crucial. The information presented here offers insight into the frequency, impact and occurrence of natural hazards.

Natural Hazard / Development Nexus

Understanding natural hazard occurrence as well as historical climate conditions, in relation to development contexts, is critical to understanding a country’s historical vulnerability. This tool allows the visualization of different natural hazards or historical climate conditions with socio-economic and development datasets. Select the Development Context and either a Natural Hazard or Climate Condition and overlay horizontally by sliding the toggle left or right to gain a broader sense of historically vulnerable areas.


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Data presented under Historical Climate Conditions are reanalysis products derived from ERA5-Land data. ERA5-Land is a global land-surface dataset at 9 km resolution, consistent with atmospheric data from the ERA5 reanalysis from 1950 onward. Climate reanalyses combine past observations with models to generate consistent time series of multiple climate variables. They provide a comprehensive description of the observed climate as it has evolved during recent decades, on 3D grids at sub-daily intervals. 

This data has been collected, aggregated and processed by the Climate Resilience Cluster of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD) initiative.

Key Vulnerabilities
  • Volcano hazard is classified as ‘high’ by ThinkHazard, meaning that Sudan is located at less than 50 kilometers from a volcano for which a potentially damaging eruption has been recorded in the past 2,000 years and that future damaging eruptions are possible. The hazard level is highest is in the northern regions and moderate in western and southwestern regions.
  • Earthquake hazard is classified as ‘medium’ by ThinkHazard, meaning that there is a 2% chance of potentially-damaging earthquake shaking in Sudan in the next 50 years. The hazard level is highest in the coastal eastern region.
  • River flooding hazard is classified as ‘high’ by ThinkHazard, meaning that potentially damaging and life-threatening river floods are expected to occur at least once in Sudan in the next 10 years. The hazard level is high across all regions of the country. Floods have been the most frequently recorded hazards in Sudan between 1990-2014, comprising 73% of disasters, and are expected to increase in frequency.
  • Water scarcity hazard is classified as ‘high’ by ThinkHazard, meaning that droughts are expected to occur on average every 5 years. In northern Sudan, model projections are inconsistent in changes in drought, while in southern Sudan there is medium confidence of increases in drought tendency. The hazard level is high across almost all regions of Sudan. In fact, droughts have been the second most frequently recorded hazards in Sudan between 1990-2014, comprising 15% of disasters, and are expected to increase in frequency.
  • Coastal flooding hazard is classified as ‘high’ by ThinkHazard, meaning that potentially-damaging waves are expected to flood the coast at least once in the next 10 years. The hazard level is limited to eastern coastal regions.
  • Other climate-related phenomena, such as dust storms, thunder storms, heat waves and wind storms also pose threats in Sudan. Dust storms can contribute to air and land traffic accidents and health problems. Thunderstorms can lead to loss of lives and property. Heat waves can lead to loss of lives, livestock and crops. Wind storms can lead to loss of lives, property and damage to infrastructure.

More information on natural hazards can be found at ThinkHazard.