The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Temperatures in the Pacific are projected to increase between 1.4 and 3.1°C.
- While average annual and monthly rainfall changes are inconsistent across this region of the Pacific, recent evidence and model simulations point to a more frequent occurrence of El Nino weather patterns, bringing an increase in drought conditions along this region. These more frequent El Nino events are believed to be associated with climate change, although some disagreement exists within the science community on this point.
- The future of rainfall patterns across the Pacific region is a subject of continued debate, with models projecting +/-25% changes in rainfall. As of yet, it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large model uncertainties.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.