The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). According to Seychelle's Second National Communication, key future climate trends include:
- Air temperature for both Mahe and Aldabra area is more likely than not to warm by +3.0°C;
- The relative warming will occur mainly during the cooler southeast monsoon;
- The warming ranges are from +0.4° to 0.7°, 0.9° to 1.4° and 1.8° to 2.9° C respectively for the years 2025, 2050 and 2100.
- Likely extremes of low rainfall in the dry season with a deficit of -12.7 % (-9.9 mm) in rainfall for the year 2025, and a decrease of -36.3 % (-31.1 mm) in the year 2100;
- In contrast, the likely extremes of wet conditions are likely to be characterized by an increase of +5.9 % (+19 mm) for the year 2025, +9.3 % (+25.4 mm) for the year 2050 and +12.4% (+38.6 mm) for the year 2100.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.