The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.1°C by the 2060's, and 1.7 to 4.9°C by the 2090's, with projected rates of warming faster in the interior than in those areas closer to the coast.
- All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in the current climate, with such increases occurring more rapidly in the south and east of the country.
- All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights considered ‘cold’ in the current climate.
- Different models in the ensemble project a wide range of changes in the mean annual rainfall averaged over the country, from ‐41 to +48% by the 2090's—but more models show decreases. It is difficult to draw robust conclusions of changes in precipitation; however, it is likely that a greater proportion of precipitation will occur in heavy rainfall events. Given the range of changes in the projections for Senegal, it is important to incorporate scenarios of both precipitation increases and decreases in future planning.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.