Country

Puerto Rico

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Puerto Rico.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents Puerto Rico’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). According to the Puerto Rico Climate Change Council, key future climate trends include:

Temperature 

  • Projections for the Caribbean show a greater than 1.5°C rise in annual mean temperature by 2100.
  • Projections for Puerto Rico show an increase of 0.02°C per year through 2050; at least a 0.8°C increase in annual mean by mid-century, and as much as 2-5°C  increase by 2100.
  • Projections for extreme events show a probable increase in extreme heat days.
  • Cold events are expected to become exceedingly rare.
  • The projected rate of warming is most rapid in winter (December, January, February).

Precipitation

  • There is a lot of uncertainty in the magnitude of precipitation changes in the Caribbean.
  • Current evidence suggests drier conditions are more likely than wetter for Puerto Rico, a contrast to the global precipitation signal.
  • IPCC climate simulations suggests that the North Atlantic and Caribbean will experience a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, but an increase in the frequency of the most intense events.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


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