The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). According to the Puerto Rico Climate Change Council, key future climate trends include:
- Projections for the Caribbean show a greater than 1.5°C rise in annual mean temperature by 2100.
- Projections for Puerto Rico show an increase of 0.02°C per year through 2050; at least a 0.8°C increase in annual mean by mid-century, and as much as 2-5°C increase by 2100.
- Projections for extreme events show a probable increase in extreme heat days.
- Cold events are expected to become exceedingly rare.
- The projected rate of warming is most rapid in winter (December, January, February).
- There is a lot of uncertainty in the magnitude of precipitation changes in the Caribbean.
- Current evidence suggests drier conditions are more likely than wetter for Puerto Rico, a contrast to the global precipitation signal.
- IPCC climate simulations suggests that the North Atlantic and Caribbean will experience a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, but an increase in the frequency of the most intense events.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.