The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
- Projected temperature increases in Pakistan are significantly higher than the global average. The IPCC projects a global average temperature increase by 2081–2100 of 3.7°C under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) whilst the model ensemble projects an average increase of 4.9°C for Pakistan in the same scenario.
- The projected rise in annual maximum temperatures is estimated at 5.24°C.
- Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer.
- Great uncertainty surrounds projections of future precipitation rates in Pakistan due to the models' weak performance simulating future changes in the South Asian monsoon and dynamics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
- A trend towards increased future annual precipitation is supported by published research.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.