The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.5ºC in 2040-2059 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5).
- Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) annual hot days will increase by 35.4 days in 2040-2059.
- Projected rates of warming are occurring faster in the interior regions of the country than in those closer to the coast. Projections show substantial increases in the frequency of days with above normal temperatures
- Maximum warming is anticipated to impact summer months, primarily between June and September.
- Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 10.6 mm in 2040-2059.
- Rainy season will experience a shortened duration, however, increased extreme rainfall is anticipated, particularly in the southern areas of the West African Sahel.
- The possibility that precipitation would occur less frequently but more intensely will lead to overall drier years with more flood events.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.