Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Malawi.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.


  • Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.0°C by the 2060’s, and by 1.5 to 5.0°C by the 2090's. Annually, projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur more often.
  • Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate during the baseline period 1970‐99 are projected to increase more quickly than hot days.


  • Substantial changes in annual rainfall are not projected between June to October and monthly rainfall changes for November to May are inconsistent, with some models projecting increases and others projecting decreases, particularly in the period from September to May.
  • All models consistently project increases in the proportion of rainfall that falls in heavy events in the annual average of up to 19 percent by the 2090's.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.