Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Liberia's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • Under RCP 8.5, average annual temperatures are expected to increase by 1.8ºC in 2040-2059.
  • Under RCP 8.5, GCMs project 44 additional hot days with temperatures above 35°C by mid-century.
  • Hot nights are also expected to increase by 37-89% and 49-95% of all nights for mid and end century, respectively (RCP8.5).
  • Under RCP 8.5, daily maximum temperatures is projected to increase by 1ºC to as much as 2ºC for the year for mid-century.

Precipitation

  • Despite significant inter-annual variability, under RCP8.5, monthly precipitation is projected to decrease by 1.3mm per month in the 2040-2059 period. Annual precipitation will decrease by 23.6 mm in 2040-2059.
  • Despite variability, there is an expected increase in extreme rainfall intensity and an expected reduction in dry season rainfall in the southern regions, by mid-century.