The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Mean annual temperature is expected to increase by 2°С by 2050.
- Mean rainfall is projected to decrease by 11% by 2050.
- The maximum amount of rain that falls in any 5-day period is expected to decrease. There is a large disagreement between GCMs on runoff with 1 of 12 GCMs projecting a 25% increase by 2050, while others suggest an increase or no difference.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.