Climate Projections

Mean Projections

This page presents Guyana's projected climate. Data is shown as either the projected mean or anomaly (change) and is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data can be analyzed as annual or seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). On this page, projection data is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system for a selected SSP. It is important to note that SSPs are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. Data presented is CMIP6, derived from the Sixth phase of the CMIPs. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

This page provides a generalist overview, offering a selection of the most popular indicators, presented through multi-model ensembles. An expanded suite of indicators that can be investigated as either multi-model ensembles or individual models is available through our Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page.  Data from the CMIP5 Collection can still be accessed by the link below. 

Mean Projections (CMIP6) - Expert Page        CMIP5 Data





Temperature

  • The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.9 to 3.3°C by the 2060's, and 1.4 to 5.0 degrees by the 2090's. 
  • The projected rate of warming is similar in all seasons, but more rapid in the southern, interior regions of the country than in the northern, coastal regions.
  • All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate.
  • All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘cold’ in current climate. These events are expected to become exceedingly rare, occurring on maximum of 4% of days in the year, and potentially not at all, by the 2090's.

Precipitation

  • Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble project a wide range of changes in precipitation for Guyana.
  • Ensemble median values of change by the 2060's are consistently negative for all seasons and emissions scenarios.
  • Maximum 1‐ and 5‐day rainfalls show little consistent change, but tend towards positive changes in the seasons in the southern parts of the country.

Temparature

Precipitation