The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Mean annual temperatures over West Africa are projected to increase by 3° C to 6° C by the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (CMIP5).
- All projections indicate that the number of ‘hot’ days will increase for Guinea-Bissau by mid and late century under both low and high emissions scenarios.
- Ensemble mean projections for ‘cold’ nights project decreases for both middle and late century under both low and high emissions scenarios.
- By the end of the 21st century many CMIP5 models project mean precipitation over West Africa to increase during the rainy season with a small delay in the start of the rainy season.
- There is low to medium confidence in GCM projections for heavy rainfall over West Africa by the end of the 21st Century, but RCMs indicate an increase in the number of days with extreme rainfall in May and July over West Africa.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.