The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- Temperatures are projected to increase between 1.5°C and 4.5°C, with the month of May being the hottest with temperatures exceeding 28°C; the southern coast may have the most significant changes in the temperatures while the western areas may exhibit low variability.
- Intensification of heatwaves and high temperature expansion into previously cooler regions such as mountainous areas projected.
- Higher increase in average annual precipitation near the Pacific Coast and in the Western and Central Plains; a 30% reduction in precipitation in the Motagua Valley in the east and in the central plains.
- Precipitation decrease is projected for the beginning of wet season in the southwestern region.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.