The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.
- The mean annual temperature in The Gambia is projected to increase by between 1.1°C to 3.1°C by the 2060's and by between 1.8°C to 5.0°C by the 2090's.
- The projected rate of warming is faster in the interior regions of The Gambia than in those areas closer to the coast.
- All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate.
- Projections of mean annual rainfall averaged over the country from different models in the ensemble project a wide range of increases and decreases in precipitation for the Gambia, but tend towards decreases, particularly in the wet season (July, August and September).
- Projected annual precipitation changes range from ‐23 to +18% by the 2090's, with ensemble means between 0 and ‐3% and with increasing occurrence of heavy rainfall events.
- Projected July, August and September changes ranges from ‐53 to +74% by the 2090's, with ensemble means between ‐7 and ‐20%. The range of projections from different models in the ensemble includes both increases and decreases in all seasons.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.