The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Key projected climate trends summarized in the Ethiopia Climate Risk Country Profile include:
- Increased temperatures are expected for East Africa and specifically for Ethiopia, with mean monthly temperature changes expected to increase by 1.8℃ by the 2050s and by 3.7℃ by end of the century, under a high-emission scenario.
- The frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights will substantially increase in projected future climates. Annual projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 19‐40% of days by the 2060s, and 26‐69% of days by the 2090s.
- Under a high-emission scenario, the number of very hot days (>35°C) will also increase, with the likelihood of nearly 100 additional very hot days by end of the century.
- Ethiopia has a high degree of inter-annual variability and high degrees of uncertainty remain in future projections of Ethiopia’s precipitation trends.
- Increases in the proportion of total rainfall occurring in ‘heavy’ events are expected; with annual increases up by as much as 18%.
- For central and southern areas, rainfall may decrease, while an increase is expected southwest and southeast areas; northern areas are near uniformly expected to experience a general decrease in rainfall.
This section allows the visualization of climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.