The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The following trends are representative of the Caribbean region as a whole, rather than for Dominica specifically.
- The RCM shows a similar rate of increase with an annual temperature change of 1.8–2.3°C by the 2090's. These projections are consistent with IPCC projections for the Caribbean, which show annual mean temperatures increasing by 1.4°C to 3.2°C, with a median increase of 2.0°C by 2100.
- Annually, projections indicate that “hot” days will occur on 25–65 percent of days by the 2060's, and 37–100 percent of days by the 2090's. Days that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in September, October, and November.
- Nights that are considered “hot” for the annual climate of 1970–99 are projected to occur on 24–64 percent of nights by the 2060's and 37–99 percent of nights by the 2090's. Nights that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in September, October, and November.
- Projections of mean annual rainfall indicate decreases in rainfall in all seasons except March, April, and May. Annual projections vary between ‐53% and +27% by the 2090's.
- The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events decreases in most model projections, changing by ‐18% to +10% by the 2090's.
This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.