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As climate dynamics continue to change, so will sea levels, driven by the expansion of warming ocean waters and the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets. The ocean plays a crucial role in regulating global temperatures, absorbing more than 90% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas emissions. However, due to the ocean’s immense thermal inertia, this warming - and the resulting sea level rise - will continue for centuries, even if emissions are halted. The delayed response of ice sheets and ocean expansion means that sea levels are already committed to rising further. Unlike historical sea level changes, which reflect past conditions based on tide gauge and altimetry data, projections rely on climate models that simulate various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and ice sheet dynamics. Regional variations add complexities of sea level change, and local factors such as vertical land movement, ocean currents, and regional weather patterns influence the rate and magnitude of change. 

This page explores the anticipated future changes in sea levels as well and the contributing processes. Data can be explored by Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).​ Where appropriate, statistics for selected areas of focus can be compared to global means. Projected sea level data is from the 2021 IPCC 6th Assessment Report. All projections are relative to 2005 (1995-2015).

CCKP is grateful for the support and expertise of NASA's Sea Level Change Team (N-SLCT). All data presented has been provided by N-SLCT. For additional details about the science behind sea level change, users are encouraged to visit: https://earth.gov/sealevel 

01 - Sea Level Projections

What you can see in this figure
This map displays projected total sea level rise for different years into the future under different Shared Socio-economic Scenarios (SSPs), relative to 2005 (1995-2015). Users can explore how sea levels may change over time by selecting a future year using the slider and choosing an emissions scenario from the dropdown menu. The map highlights Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which can be clicked for location-specific sea level projections. These projections are influenced by various physical processes, detailed in Section II, that drive future sea level change.

Understanding the Data: Implications and Utility
The maps visualizes areas at risk of inundation, increased coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion, helping to identify vulnerable communities and infrastructure.
 

What you can see in this figure
The time series show the projected sea level rise relative to 2005 (1995-2015) for a given country EEZ. The solid lines represent the median projections, while the shaded regions indicate the 17th–83rd percentile range, reflecting model uncertainty. Users can select or deselect SSPs in the legend to compare different pathways.​ 

SSPs 1.19, 1.26, 2.45, 3.70 and 5.85 present represent projections where there is medium confidence. Low-confidence scenarios (SSP-1.26 Low Confidence, SSP2-4.5 Low Confidence and SSP-5.85 Low Confidence) are included to present a representation of the potential effect of low-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes, which cannot be ruled out.

Understanding the Data: Implications and Utility
See how sea level rise is projected to increase long-term for all scenarios. The highest-emission scenarios rate is faster. 

What are some caveats and potential limitations to consider?
It is important to note that projections for low-emissions scenarios have higher uncertainty. These projections provide insights into potential future changes but should be interpreted with caution, particularly for extreme scenarios. 

What you can see in this figure
This chart shows the projected year (range of years with uncertainty) when the selected EEZ will reach specific levels of sea level rise (or milestone) relative to (1995–2015) under different emissions scenarios (e.g. 0.5 meters). Users can adjust the slider at the bottom to select different sea level rise thresholds (m) to see when they are expected to occur across the various scenarios.​

​The projections are derived by fitting a quadratic trend to the decadal sea level rise values from the time series data presented in the first plot. Using this trend, we estimate the year in which a given sea level rise threshold is reached. The box and whisker plots represent the range of model projections, with the median year shown as a central marker and the spread indicating uncertainty across models. ​These projections help illustrate the pace of sea level rise and how different emissions pathways influence the timing of key milestones.

The timing of the selected threshold exceedance is shown for median values with the thick bars presenting the 17th and 83rd percentiles. The thin bars show the 5th and 95th percentile ranges for the SSP-1.26 Low Confidence, SSP2-4.5 Low Confidence, and SSP-5.85 Low Confidence scenarios.

Understanding the Data: Implications and Utility
This plot allows the user to know when certain thresholds are projected to be achieved. This is useful for planning adaptation and resilience. 

02 - Contributors to Sea Level Change

Different contributing processes such as ongoing ice melt, thermal expansion, vertical land motion, and changes in terrestrial water storage are essential for understanding future sea level changes. As climate change intensifies, these processes are expected to accelerate, driving more significant regional and global sea level rise. Continued warming will have far-reaching implications for coastal areas and ecosystems, with consequences depending on local conditions and driven by location specific responses from contributing processes. Contributions are shown relative to 2005 (1993-2015).

​What you can see in this figure
This chart allows you to analyze the key processes driving sea level rise over time: ice sheet and glacier melt, vertical land motion, sterodynamic effects, and changes in terrestrial water storage. ​The percentages and values provided are intended to show the relative importance of different processes. Data can be visualized differently by changing the following selections:

Show Change by Decade: grouping data by decade to show how total sea level change has evolved over time, 

Show Change by Contributing Process: grouping data by process to enable easier viewing of the relative impact of each process.

Analyze data for Selected Area or by Global Mean.​

Process Contributors:

GreenLand Ice Sheet, Antartica Ice Sheet, and Glaciers: Melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, along with retreating glaciers, release freshwater into the oceans, driving sea level rise. The water-mass driven contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, and mountain glaciers are estimated using gravitational, rotational and deformational patterns tied to the GRACE and GRACE-FO data.​

Vertical Land Motion: Local sea levels vary depending on whether land is rising or sinking due to natural shifts or human activities like groundwater extraction. (Oelsmann et al., 2024)​​

Thermal and Ocean Circulation Dynamics: Ocean warming and changes in currents, driven by climate change, cause thermal expansion and impact regional sea levels by altering heat transport and adding freshwater from melting ice. The sterodynamic trend is assessed by subtracting the water-mass driven trends from the satellite altimetry data. This residual will potentially include trend contributions associated with the misclosure of the sea level budget at an individual location.​

Terrestrial (Land) Water Storage: Groundwater depletion and water accumulation in reservoirs and soils influence sea levels, either raising them by adding water to the ocean or lowering them when water is retained on land. Land water storage are estimated using gravitational, rotational and deformational patterns tied to the GRACE and GRACE-FO data.​

Contributions from individual processes were assessed as part of the projection generation in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. See Interagency Task Force Scenario Data. Contributions from individual processes are assessed as part of the projection generation in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.

03 - High Tide Flooding

Projected High Tide Flooding (HTF) reflects the number of projected days that exceed one of more of the HTF thresholds above the average high tide, from 1983-2001. Rising sea levels are expected to increase the frequency of HTF events, however data presented below only tracks days when sea levels exceed designated thresholds and is not a direct indication of flood events. Projected thresholds are compared against the historical 30-year average for most recent data of Minor, Moderate, and Major HTF thresholds for selected locations.

HTF Thresholds

  • Minor High Tide Flooding: 40cm (400mm)
  • Moderate High Tide Flooding: 60cm (600mm)
  • Major High Tide Flooding: 80cm (800mm)