Country

China

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting China.

Climate ProjectionsMean Projections

This page presents China’s projected climate. Information is shown by climatologies, as either projected mean or anomaly (change). We offer a range of variables at both national and sub-national aggregations. Data is presented spatially, as a seasonal cycle, time series, or heatplot, which shows seasonal change over long-term time horizons. Data can be analyzed as both annual and seasonal; monthly data is available in the Data Download page. You can further tailor your analysis by selecting different projected climatologies and emission scenarios, or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Projection data on this page is presented as multi-model ensembles, which represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the climate system. It is important to note that RCPs are “what if scenarios” and provide insight into future climates based on defined emissions and mitigation efforts. Data for specific coordinates can be downloaded in the Data Download page.  

Climate projection data is modeled data from the global climate model compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World Climate Research Program. The data currently presented is derived from the fifth phase of the CMIPs, CMIP5. The CMIPs form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP5 is used for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and CMIP6 will be used for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. Projection data is presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x 100km) resolution.

Loading Title...

Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


Printing...

Loading...

Loading...

Loading...

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Average temperature changes in China are projected to be considerably higher than the global average (5°C) under higher emission RCPs. 
  • Projected temperature changes under RCP2.6 sit below the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Climate Agreement.
  • The global model ensemble suggests increases will be weaker in the vicinity of the coast and stronger inland, particularly at higher altitudes.
  • Regional projections of change by 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 range from 4.3°C in the Southwest, to 5.5°C in the Northwest.

Precipitation

  • On a national level changes in average monthly precipitation over China hold considerable uncertainty.
  • Increases in precipitation are most likely, on most emissions pathways and in most regions of China.
  • There may be potential reductions in average precipitation in the central regions of China to the northeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
  • Under all emissions pathways, an increase in the precipitation associated with a maximum 5-day rainfall event is expected in the Central, Southern, and Eastern regions of China.
  • Under all emissions pathways reductions are projected in the Western regions, and under lower emissions pathways reductions are also expected in the arid northern regions.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

Loading Title...

Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.


Printing...

Loading...

Loading...

Loading...