Country

China

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting China.

Climate Data Projections

The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, among the most widely used are the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate projections can be presented via individual models or through multi-model ensembles. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) supports the analysis of climate impacts using multi-model ensembles, as they represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes when representing expected changes.

Temperature

  • Average temperature changes in China are projected to be considerably higher than the global average (5°C) under higher emission RCPs. 
  • Projected temperature changes under RCP2.6 sit below the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Climate Agreement.
  • The global model ensemble suggests increases will be weaker in the vicinity of the coast and stronger inland, particularly at higher altitudes.
  • Regional projections of change by 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 range from 4.3°C in the Southwest, to 5.5°C in the Northwest.

Precipitation

  • On a national level changes in average monthly precipitation over China hold considerable uncertainty.
  • Increases in precipitation are most likely, on most emissions pathways and in most regions of China.
  • There may be potential reductions in average precipitation in the central regions of China to the northeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
  • Under all emissions pathways, an increase in the precipitation associated with a maximum 5-day rainfall event is expected in the Central, Southern, and Eastern regions of China.
  • Under all emissions pathways reductions are projected in the Western regions, and under lower emissions pathways reductions are also expected in the arid northern regions.

This section provides the options to visualize climate variables and indices derived from scientifically vetted CMIP5 projections for different timeframes, statistics, emission scenarios, and climate models.

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Use the menu above to visualize different climate projection layers and chart data. Click on the map to get location specific data.

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